A preliminary analysis on education data relating to children born in the EU living in Wales and children born in Wales living in Wales, which details their attendance and attainment at school.
The EUSS (Wales) Data Linkage Project is an ADR Wales (a partnership between Welsh Government, Swansea and Cardiff Universities) initiative born out of the need to improve the evidence base on EU citizens living in Wales. It aims to link data on EU citizens living in Wales with other data already held within the SAIL Databank. Using a range of de-identified data in the SAIL Databank, a control group of British citizens in Wales has been matched with EU citizens with similar characteristics using the 2011 Census. This provides a spine to identify country of birth, with a focus upon health (mental health), education, and employment. The outcomes enable researchers and policymakers to better understand the experiences of EU citizens living in Wales. These insights will lead to better informed policy and services that address the needs of this potentially vulnerable population.
We examined the differences between Welsh pupils and EU14- and EU8-born pupils in relation to educational attainment and attendance at the Foundation Phase, Key Stage 2, Key Stage 3, and GCSE level in Wales. EU14 countries include Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden. EU8 countries include Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
Initial findings indicated small but statistically significant differences in school attendance between Welsh born pupils and pupils born in EU14 and EU8 countries. They also indicate similar differences in school attainment between Welsh-born pupils in Wales and pupils born in EU14 and EU8 countries living in Wales. However, it is important to note that there were differences in the number of pupils included in the analysis. Welsh pupils accounted for more than a million records when looking at attendance at different school types (primary and secondary). EU14- and EU8-born pupils accounted for around 100 to 10,000 records, depending on school type.
Attainment Findings: Foundation Phase, KS2, KS3
Subjects included: English Language, Welsh Language, Mathematics, Science, Personal & Social Development, Foundation Phase and Core Subject Indicator.
- Attainment levels for Wales born pupils were better than both EU14 and EU8 born pupils at Foundation Phase, KS2 and KS3.
- EU born pupils had a statistically significant higher pass percentage for Welsh Language than Welsh born pupils at Foundation Phase and KS3.
- Attainment levels for EU8 born pupils did not appear to reach the same level as EU14 pupils, but further analysis is required to explore this hypothesis.
Attendance Findings
English medium primary schools:
- Welsh-born pupils had a slightly higher (statistically significant) mean and median attendance than EU-born pupils.
- Welsh born pupils had a slightly lower mean and median attendance than EU14-born pupils higher attendance than EU8-born pupils.
Welsh medium primary schools:
- Welsh-born pupils had a slightly higher mean and median attendance than EU-born pupils.
English medium secondary schools:
- Welsh-born pupils had a lower mean and median attendance than EU-born pupils.
- Welsh-born pupils had a lower mean and median attendance than EU14-born pupils, but higher than EU8-born pupils.
Welsh medium secondary schools:
- Welsh born pupils had a lower mean and median attendance than EU-born pupils, not statistically significant.
GCSE Results
Findings relate to pupils achieving at least 5 GCSEs (A* to C) including English Language and Mathematics
EU14-born pupils had a statistically significant higher pass percentage than Welsh-born pupils and EU8-born pupils, but there was no significant difference between EU8-born and Welsh-born pupils.
Mathematics: There was no difference in the pass percentage between EU14-born and Welsh-born pupils or EU8- and Welsh-born pupils, and EU14-born and EU8-born pupils.
English language: EU14-born pupils had a statistically significantly higher pass percentage than EU8- and Welsh-born pupils. Welsh-born pupils had a statistically significantly higher pass percentage than EU8-born pupils.
Impact of the country of birth: There was a positive correlation with pupils born in EU14 countries achieving at least 5 GCSEs (A* to C) when compared to Welsh born pupils. But a negative correlation with pupils born in EU8 countries achieving at least 5 GCSEs (A* to C) when compared to Welsh born pupils.
The odds ratio of pupils born in EU14 countries achieving at least 5 GCSEs (A* to C) was higher than pupils born in Wales. Whereas the odds ratio of pupils born in EU8 countries achieving at least 5 GCSEs (A* to C) was lower than pupils born in Wales.
So why does it matter?
Attendance and attainment are related when looking at pupils having the best school experience and wider life chances. UK Government data shows all pupils with the highest attainment at the end of Key Stage 2 and Key Stage 4 have higher rates of attendance over the Key Stage than those with the lowest attainment. It is important to obtain an accurate knowledge of the educational outcomes for EU-born children living in Wales. This influences the policy decisions and services that the Welsh Government can deliver to address the needs of this population. It also enables researchers and policymakers to better understand the experiences of EU-born children living in Wales.
What comes next?
We are carrying out further linking and analysis of de-identified data on EU citizens living in Wales, matching this to data held in the SAIL Databank. We are looking to include further variables that may explain GCSE attainment, especially in relation to the findings from our logistic regression analysis and will be looking at attainment at A-Levels. We are also exploring questions that are of importance to the Welsh Government. These include: • What are the different types of school attended by EU-born children living in Wales? • How do EU nationals and their children access and use health services, and are there differences to compared to other groups of individuals living in Wales? • Do differences exist between EU nationals and UK born individuals living in Wales in the type of employment compared to qualifications obtained for the domiciliary and social care workforce?
By Dr. Ffion Lloyd-Williams
This publication is based upon the analysis of Education Wales data linked to 2011 Census data. More detailed findings can be found in previously published data insight here.